| Global - 2009 Forecasted Increase |
| Region | Airfares | Hotel Rates |
| | Domestic/Short-Haul
(Economy Class) | International/Long-Haul
(Business Class) | Mid-Range | Upper-Range |
| North America | (-3)% to 5% | 1% to 6% | (-1)% to 6% | (-2)% to 4.5% |
| Europe | 0% to 4% | 1% to 9% | 0% to 6.5% | 0% to 5% |
| LAC | 3% to 5% | 2% to 4% | 4% to 6% | 3% to 7% |
| Global | (-1)% to 5% | 2% to 7% | (-1)% to 6% | (-2)% to 5% |
Global Airfare Forecast
The proliferation of new fees and a delicate supply and demand balancing act will determine whether airfares remain steady, increase or potentially decrease compared to 2008.
- Capacity cuts are likely to lead to a shortage of available seats at lower price points, while changes in ticketing and minimum-stay requirements, uncertainty surrounding the future price of jet fuel, movement in airline consolidation and alliances and tighter controls over contract performance measurement are likely to drive price increases.
- Prices are predicted to experience downward pressure due to a slowing global economy, improved demand management by corporations and stronger traveler compliance. The expansion of low-cost carriers, more efficient aircraft and airline operations and the continued liberalization of the industry are also expected to mitigate increases.
Global Hotel Rate Forecast
Although American Express Business Travel forecasts some rate growth in the global hotel industry, most regions will likely experience declines in occupancy, which will keep rate increases below the level of those seen in 2008.
- The record oil prices that began in 2008 are expected to continue to impact the hotel industry and airline capacity cuts should drive down demand in some markets.
- As new hotels expand global supply and demand decreases in some markets, travel buyers should have increased bargaining power for 2009 rates.
Strategic Meeting Management Forecast
As economic conditions continue to draw attention to meetings as a source for savings, senior business leaders are expected to seek further visibility into meetings spending and aim to measure the return on investment of meetings and events for their companies.
- Effective demand management tactics and a movement toward shorter events in more local destinations should help corporations achieve the best return on investment.
- Implementing and managing meetings policy is expected to provide companies the ability to drive certain cost-saving behaviors. Based on a recent survey of American Express clients, over 70 percent of companies do not have a stand alone meetings policy.
- Technology developments offer cost-effective ways to supplement meetings and events schedules. Teleconferencing and social networking sites are gaining popularity as tools to strengthen the interpersonal relationships created through traditional meetings.
- Leveraging transient hotel programs with a meetings hotel program is expected to enable companies to have visibility in both areas and drive savings. Negotiating packages for the preferred properties will likely simplify the process to drive and support compliance.
Cost Containment Strategies for 2009
Companies across the globe are seeking new ways to manage their travel investments and maximize the value of their T&E programs.
- Companies should revisit their travel policies to ensure that travelers have a comprehensive guide to navigate the current travel environment.
- In addition to a tight travel policy, demand management and an increased focus on traveler compliance can deliver savings.
- Benchmarking that is based on average segment cost or average ticket price is no longer sufficient due to the expansion of airline fees. Companies should benchmark the entire cost of a trip in an effort to minimize expenditures related to business travel.